Israel's relationship with Turkey, once a cornerstone of regional stability, has undergone significant strain. In the mid- to late-1990s, their military alliance was central to a peace-through-strength initiative, deterring regional conflicts through cooperation in military, commercial, and tourism sectors. However, Turkey has become more Islamic over time, and under Prime Minister Recep Erdogan, who has led since 2003, tensions have escalated. Erdogan's rhetoric against Israel has intensified since 2006, culminating in his February statement labeling Zionism a crime against humanity. A notable conflict arose from the 2010 Israeli commando raid on a Turkish ship attempting to run a blockade, resulting in nine deaths. Under pressure from the United States, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed regret and promised compensation to Erdogan, who accepted the apology. Both nations agreed to reinstate ambassadors and restore diplomatic ties, but progress has stalled after three rounds of talks. Jerusalem resists admitting the compensation as acknowledgment of a wrongful act, while Ankara demands a significantly higher payment, acceptance of blame, and evidence of improved living conditions for Palestinians. Despite shared interests in limiting radical Islam, preventing Syrian conflict spillover, countering Iran's nuclear ambitions, and maintaining regional stability as democratic, pro-Western U.S. allies, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East now holds more potential for conflict between Israel and Turkey. Economic and territorial tensions over eastern Mediterranean natural-gas reservoirs, alongside Israel's stronger ties with Cyprus and Greece, add to the strain. While a return to past strategic cooperation seems unlikely, both nations could benefit from seizing the opportunity to reestablish close ties, especially for Israel, which faces stressful isolation in the region.

Turkey, heir to the formidable Ottoman Empire, is awakening as a pivotal power on the global stage. Once the dominant Muslim power and a major force in North Africa, Southeastern Europe, and the Middle East, Turkey controlled vast regions and facilitated trade across three continents as the hub of a multinational empire. Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, Turkey's role has been limited and cautious, focused inward for nearly a century. However, this period of quietude is ending, and Turkey is slowly re-emerging as a significant player. The Turkish Armed Forces, the second largest in NATO after the U.S., boast over a million uniformed personnel. Economically, Turkey had the eighteenth largest economy in the world in 2006, surpassing all other Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, with consistent growth between five and eight percent for over five years. Despite opposition from neighboring nations like Russia, Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, Turkey's growing economy diminishes their ability to restrain its influence, except for Russia. As its economy, military capabilities, and influence expand at the crossroads of Europe, Russia, and the Middle East, Turkey is unlikely to remain passive, necessitating a shift in the balance of power in regions like southeastern Europe and the volatile Middle East. Turkey's strategic position makes it a leading power in multiple regions, with its economy and military pre-eminence growing alongside its development. Though not yet a regional hegemon, its influence and politico-military activity are steadily increasing. During the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, Turkey, a long-time U.S. ally, declined to allow American forces to use its territory as a staging ground, wary of being seen as a collaborator in a war against another Muslim nation. This positions Turkey as more essential to America as a basing point and counterweight to Iran than America is to Turkey. Surrounded by chaos, Turkey has a vested interest in stabilizing the region but no longer views the United States as a stabilizing force and sees Europe as hostile and impotent. Its focus lies on the future of Syria, Iraq, its alliance with Israel, and the Arabian Peninsula. Turkey is emerging as a regional power, beginning the process of recreating a hegemon of enormous strategic power in Asia Minor, projecting political, economic, and military influence in all directions. Since 2003, it has ceased relying on the United States to guarantee its national security, willing to cooperate only on issues of mutual interest, not as a subordinate. Though a Muslim nation, its republican, constitutional government, established in the 1920s, fiercely maintains secularism, even deploying the military to protect it. However, anti-American sentiment is rising sharply among Turks. While Turkey's capabilities and potential are growing, it still lacks a clear direction or purpose for its rediscovered power. As a NATO member, it increasingly acts out of self-interest rather than treaty obligations, positioning itself neither as a clear Western ally nor an enemy, making its future actions a significant question in geopolitics.