by Joseph B. Baity
Forerunner,
"WorldWatch,"
September 11, 2024
Global conflict is on the rise.
In 2023, the world experienced the highest number of state-based conflicts since 1946, while the past three years (2021-2023) were identified as the most violent in the last three-plus decades, dating back to 1989. While the number of countries involved in violent engagements fell from 39 in 2022 to 34 in 2023, the total number increased due to multiple conflicts in various states.
According to Siri Aas Rustad, Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO):
Violence in the world is at an all-time high since the end of the Cold War. The figures suggest that the conflict landscape has become increasingly complex, with more conflict actors operating within the same country.
In June 2024, PRIO released a research paper entitled “Conflict Trends: A Global Overview,” for which Rustad was the lead writer. In it, he states that nearly 600,000 people died in battle-related conflict between 2021 and 2023. The number of fatalities represented a massive increase over the prior six years, from 2015 through 2020, when the world enjoyed a significant decline in such deaths.
Three larger wars spurred the increase: the conflict between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, in which more than 286,000 people died; the Russia-Ukraine war, which has reportedly killed more than 160,000; and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which reports indicate has taken more than 23,000 lives in less than three months. Sadly, the latter two of these conflicts are ongoing in 2024, with many more thousands of battle-related casualties anticipated.
In 2023, Africa was home to a world-leading twenty-eight state-based conflicts, followed by Asia with seventeen and the Middle East with ten. Not surprisingly, Islam, as it broadens its operations and influence across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, is a significant driving force in the number of state-based conflicts. Additionally, transnational Islamic non-state actors, like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State (IS), are injecting their malicious efforts into ongoing state-based and non-state conflicts around the world. Not only does their presence add to the violence, but it also impedes the efforts of peacekeepers and aid groups to ease the tensions and improve the outlook for resolution.
War refugees who flee their countries seeking refuge from violence and displaced persons who flee within their nation’s borders also play a role in the rise in global conflict. Their heartbreaking plight increases the economic and political instability of a given country. Such nations are more prone to trouble because of the enormous draw on human, military, and financial resources to care for their most basic needs and to tend to the inevitable outbreaks of violence and disease that often accompany them.
While the current global situation is troubling, the near future is equally frightening. Defense spending among NATO countries rose to $2.2 trillion in 2023. Excluding the United States, this amount represents a 32% increase. But, amid this colossal spending boost, Western military readiness still suffers. In addition, strong political leadership in NATO countries is dangerously lacking, especially in light of heightened concerns that states like China, North Korea, and Iran may soon attempt to impose their wills on their neighbors and beyond.
Perhaps even more disturbing is the lessening of political support among many nations, especially in the West, for the state of Israel and its struggle to combat the assault on its borders, citizens, and Jews around the globe. Antisemitism and violence against Jews are reaching epic proportions not seen since World War II. Even within the U.S., college campuses teem with a bewildering level of support for global Islamic aggression against Israelis everywhere.
Without a dramatic turn of events, the outlook for peace continues to wane while the prospects for war intensify. Still, the timing of end-time events remains unknown to all men (Matthew 24:6; Acts 1:7). Faithful and observant Christians are wise to pay attention (Luke 21:29-30) and prepare for the possibility of more significant turmoil (Matthew 24:7; II Chronicles 15:5-6), praying always for the hope and patience needed to endure the challenges of the times (Jeremiah 29:12; Romans 12:12).