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Turmoil in Pakistan
CGG Weekly by Richard T. RitenbaughThe assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto increased geopolitical tension and uncertainty in Pakistan. Bhutto was killed by an explosive device, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 others and injuries to over a hundred people. The unrest following her death led to nearly three dozen additional deaths. Bhutto's assassination occurred near the site where Pakistan's first Prime Minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, was killed in 1951 and where her father, also a former Prime Minister, was executed in 1979. As the opposition leader, Bhutto played a crucial role in moderating the government of President Pervez Musharraf, who assumed power through a military coup in 1999. Her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) offered a voice for those resisting the rise of Muslim extremism. Reports indicate that al Qaeda, specifically Baitullah Mehsud from South Waziristan, was behind her assassination. Pakistan's geopolitical importance stems from its border with Afghanistan, where al Qaeda leaders are believed to be hiding, and its status as a nuclear-armed nation. The country's potential fall to radical elements could advance the Doomsday Clock. Under Musharraf, Pakistan has been a shaky ally to the U.S. in the War on Terror, with Musharraf managing the competing forces of religious extremism, military dominance, and secular liberalism. Pakistan's instability is due to its diverse composition, including multiple ethnic groups, Muslim ideologies, geographic regions, and a secularist tendency. The army, drawing from all these groups, serves as the main stabilizing force. Bhutto's death has led to riots, likely prompting martial law and military crackdowns. The upcoming parliamentary elections may be delayed, with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz indicating it might not participate. The PPP, the largest opposition party, now lacks a clear leader, potentially leading to further political chaos. This turmoil might benefit Musharraf, positioning him as the only viable leader despite widespread dissatisfaction with his regime. The U.S. prefers Musharraf to maintain control and stabilize the country, offering intelligence and military support to quell unrest. Al Qaeda seeks to exploit Pakistan's instability, particularly in the western regions, to gain influence and access to nuclear weapons through military and intelligence sympathizers.
Going Nuclear
CGG Weekly by Richard T. RitenbaughPakistan, ruled by General Pervez Musharaff who came to power through a coup and a rigged election, faces internal challenges from Islamic fundamentalists similar to the Taliban. These groups have made Pakistan's neighbor, Afghanistan, a target for the U.S. after 9-11. Musharaff's alignment with America has led to unpopularity and assassination attempts within his country. Despite these issues, he has managed to gain a cautious trust on nuclear matters, even from Pakistan's long-standing rival, India.
A Threat in Central Asia
CGG Weekly by Richard T. RitenbaughWe would be wise to keep an eye on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization over the next few years.
The Handwriting Is on the Wall (2002)
Feast of Tabernacles Sermon by John W. RitenbaughPakistan is among the nations from which people are streaming into the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Holland, and Denmark. This movement of populations is overwhelming the economic systems of these countries.