European Union

The State of the Union

'WorldWatch' by David C. Grabbe

Since the end of World War II, Europe has been shifting and growing into a more unified entity, with the European Union (EU) emerging as a potential challenge to the United States' position as sole superpower. After two devastating world wars, European leaders sought to restrain conflict by establishing the Council of Europe in 1949 and proposing an economic community in 1950, aiming to bind economies together to prevent war. Through treaties like the Treaty of Paris (1951), the Treaty of Rome (1957), and the Maastricht Treaty (1992), a framework was created to unite Europe economically. However, many European elites, dissatisfied with the current free-trade zone, are pushing to transform the EU into a full-fledged state, requiring a constitution to define its government and policies. In 2005, the first attempt at a European Constitution was rejected by the Dutch and French, and a revised version, the Lisbon Treaty, was also rejected by Ireland in a referendum, despite not requiring a public vote. The message from these rejections is clear: while Europeans may tolerate the EU bureaucracy and enjoy economic benefits, they resist a supranational government that might subjugate their national identities. For the Lisbon Treaty to be ratified, all 27 member states needed to agree, but the EU remains far from statehood, with political union appearing increasingly unlikely due to diverse economies, historical divisions, and varying national views on politics, trade, and defense. Trust among member states, many of whom were at war for much of the last century, remains low, and the union seems to have reached its limit in terms of integration. Indications suggest that some ties binding the EU are loosening as states prioritize their own interests. Smaller states lack the influence to push for a governing document, and while Germany has driven efforts like the Lisbon Treaty, France, holding the EU presidency in July, prefers looser policies and will not pursue a new treaty. Britain, the next major country to hold the presidency, will not do so until 2017, by which time the EU's demographic challenges may overshadow any push for statehood. Demographic trends show an aging EU population, with life expectancy increasing but a birth rate of only 1.5 per woman, far below the 2.1 needed for stability. To maintain the workforce and support retirees, the EU requires 1.5 to 3 million immigrants annually, potentially totaling 13.5 to 27 million by 2017. These immigrants, largely from Middle Eastern and North African nations, are increasing the Muslim population in countries like France, Germany, and Italy, raising concerns about cultural integration. As evidenced by events like the 2005 cartoon riots and car burnings in Paris suburbs, assimilation remains a challenge. If the EU persists for another nine years, addressing these cultural tensions may take precedence over forming a super-state.

A Snapshot of European Sentiment

'WorldWatch' by David C. Grabbe

The EU Observer in Brussels reported that EU foreign ministers altered the wording of a statement concerning the Danish cartoon controversy at the urging of Dutch foreign minister Bernard Bot, who sought to avoid any implication of an EU apology to the Muslim world. For weeks, the EU Council had been drafting a statement to present a unified stance on the cartoon uproar. The original text, which stated that the EU council acknowledges and regrets that these cartoons caused offence to Muslims across the world, was revised to say that the EU council acknowledges and regrets that these cartoons were considered offensive and distressing by Muslims across the world. While some view this as a preservation of freedom of speech with no formal apology issued, critics of the Brussels bureaucracy see it as a prime example of Europe's current state, with politicians debating over semantics while crises unfold around them.

Yet Another Call for a European Army

Commentary by Richard T. Ritenbaugh

There is a persistent call for a strong military power to arise in Europe, with recent advocacy for a European army led by French President Emmanuel Macron. He argues that the European Union (EU), comprising 27 member states, needs its own military due to the perceived unreliability of the US as an ally, citing issues like the US exit from Afghanistan and pressures over China. However, the EU faces significant internal disagreement on this matter. While some member states support the idea of an independent European army, others prefer the security of the NATO alliance and are reluctant to fund a new military initiative, often due to financial constraints and bloated social programs. Many EU countries, including Germany, the largest economy in the EU, spend far below the required defense budgets, with Germany allocating only 1.53% of its GDP to defense in 2020. Reports highlight severe deficiencies in German military readiness, with critical equipment shortages and maintenance issues rendering much of their forces ineffective. France and other European nations fare little better, lacking the resources to field a substantial army. Despite aspirations for a formidable European military, the current reality shows limited capability, with only a small Rapid Reaction Force of about 10,000 men in place. Most EU nations, except for Poland and Belgium, which are committed to NATO integration, struggle to contribute effectively to a unified defense force.

European Union

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