Until recently, France, alongside Germany, has been a primary driving force behind the European Union, both politically and economically. With each new EU ascension, however, France must struggle harder to impose its will upon the rest of the union. In a union of 27 members, following the inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania, the voting balance shifts; combined, the other EU states will have the power to override a Franco-German veto. The EU, a project largely proposed and driven by France to allow Paris to punch above its weight, has now outgrown its master, making it theoretically possible for decisions to be made without France having any recourse to counter them. Some indicators suggest that France is already slowly distancing itself from the EU. The French, along with the Dutch, voted against the EU constitution, rejecting a foundational document when they realized the EU was slipping outside the bounds of their desires. Additionally, France's leadership has begun challenging the EU's common monetary policy. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin has questioned the authority of the European Central Bank to set policies affecting exchange rates and interest rates, warning that current policies hurt exports, particularly those of France. He has implied a desire for a weaker euro to strengthen the competitiveness of French exporters and suggested that the ECB should not remain independent, allowing France to influence monetary policy to maintain aspects of its social welfare state while fostering economic growth through low interest rates. With the addition of Bulgaria and Romania, both of which are more pro-America and pro-free-market, France's ability to manipulate the EU is becoming increasingly difficult. Many French leaders are beginning to second-guess not only France's rationale for being in groupings like the eurozone but even in organizations like the European Union itself. If France is to remain in the union long-term, either the other member capitals will have to begin acceding to French desires, or France will have to become just another country. The potential collapse of the EU may hinge on France's decisions, as it is seen as a primarily French creation aimed at preserving French power and enhancing its economy in Europe.

For the last fifty years, the Franco-German partnership has been the bedrock of European power, yet their interests may begin to diverge. France, geographically constrained by Spain, Britain, Germany, and Italy, faces checks from various coalitions, prompting Paris to forge political, economic, and military associations with major international players. However, France has little need for Russia, as it is too distant to be militarily useful, too poor to be a significant market, and French policy prioritizes energy independence through substantial investment in civilian nuclear power. Consequently, France's geopolitical strategy focuses on diminishing the influence of other players to elevate its own status while keeping advancement options open. This approach explains France's opposition to the invasion of Iraq, driven by its own political and economic interests in the region, and its strong advocacy for the European Union (EU) to maintain dominance within a unified Europe. The potential divergence from Germany, alongside France's critical role in the EU—viewed as a primarily French creation to preserve and enhance its power—suggests that the Union's fate may hinge on France's decisions, potentially leading to either a new constitution or a violent dismantling of the state in times of crisis.