France created the EU to let Paris punch above its weight, and with Germany it has long driven the union politically and economically. Each new accession makes it harder for France and Germany to impose their combined will. With Bulgaria and Romania added, the other member states can outvote a Franco-German veto, so the EU has outgrown its master and can now decide things without France being able to counter them. France is already pulling away. The French, along with the Dutch, rejected the EU constitution because the union was slipping beyond what they wanted. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin challenged the independence of the European Central Bank, warning that its policies hurt exports and calling for a "monetary shield," meaning a weaker euro. In effect he wants the ECB to serve French interests, keeping inefficient parts of the social welfare state while allowing fast growth through low interest rates. The ECB will not comply, and the pro-American, pro-free-market newcomers make it harder for France to force a change. French leaders are second-guessing their place in the eurozone and the EU. Either the other capitals must yield to French desires or France must become just another country, and neither is likely. A 2004 CIA-linked assessment held that the EU's fate depends on France, since it is a French creation. In a crisis the French would either write a new constitution or violently dismantle the union, which could mean an explosive collapse. If France already believes the EU has outlived its usefulness, fifteen years may be optimistic.

France is geographically boxed in by Spain, Britain, Germany, and Italy, so any number of coalitions can hold her in check, and her neighbors have an interest in keeping her so. Paris therefore builds political, economic, and military associations with other major players. Her geopolitical strategy revolves around reducing the powers of other players, which raises her relative status, while keeping her options open. This drove France to support American independence, to guarantee and then abandon Czechoslovakia before WWII, to join Israel in attacking Egypt, and to flirt with the Soviets, Iraqis, Chinese, and anyone else unfriendly to the Americans. It also explains her opposition to the Iraq invasion, where she had her own political and economic interests. France has little need for Russia, which is too far away to be militarily useful and too poor to be a good market, and she has long sought energy independence through more civilian nuclear power than any other European nation. France is a main proponent of the European Union because it binds most of Europe together with France as a dominant player. Germany, however, lacks France's options and is drawn toward a Russian partnership, so German and French interests are diverging. Since the EU is largely a French creation meant to preserve and enhance French power, its fate depends on France. A CIA-linked assessment warns that in crises the French may write a new constitution or violently dismantle the EU, so a Franco-German divergence could begin a reorganization of Europe.

France fears being sidelined in the European Union it founded, and that fear rests on geopolitical realities. Since the Revolution, Paris has learned that France lacks the population and resources to dominate Europe alone. Under Charles de Gaulle, with Germany and Italy still recovering from World War II, the French saw that a politically integrated Continent would make France the top dog and de facto head of a superpower. Britain, its old nemesis, has played the spoiler. Holding to the balance-of-power principle, since a united Continental power is Britain's only real threat, Britain joined the EU to hinder its growth into a political and military powerhouse while enjoying its economic benefits. De Gaulle vetoed British entry repeatedly, but Britain was eventually admitted and has since blocked French aims for a stronger political union. France itself proposed most of the majority-voting structures, in the name of integration, while British opposition kept foreign affairs and tax policy in national hands. The result is an EU that poses little political or military threat to Britain but a massive threat to the French economic model. Britain and the more economically liberal new members can outvote France four to one, so France's effort to build a superpower has stitched its own straitjacket. With the defeat of the European Constitution, French and Dutch voters have favored the Anglo-Saxon economic union over the Franco-German political union. The vote also exposed the EU as an elitist vision rather than a popular dream.

In Europe, Germany stands as the dominant state in terms of geography, population, and economic strength, with only France as a distant rival. In tandem with France, Germany is the main force behind the renewed effort to ratify the Lisbon Treaty and the subsequent selection of an EU president and foreign minister. Berlin's agenda, moderated only by an often-compliant France and a currently weakened Britain, will effectively shape Europe's agenda.